We’ve been talking a lot about GLP-1 this year. This class of weight-loss drugs is having visible effects not only on the faces and waistlines of many influencers, but it is also impacting the sales of many food companies. However, while adoption is rising, what if it’s only the beginning? What if the real mass adoption of these drugs was in front of us? Then what could be the consequences, and what are the potential answers for the food industry?

1- Why 2026 could be the year where GLP-1 becomes mainstream?

We recently shared data showing that about 12% of the US population has already tried these drugs, with a few percentages of them using them regularly. While it is complicated to make any long-term projections, we could be in a situation where about 10% of the population uses them by 2030. Three new elements should help this movement:

• Reduced price in the US: while the main players are currently pricing their product at above $1000 per month, a deal signed between them and Donald Trump will make them available at a much lower price, starting at $149/month. This, and increased competition between pharma companies will enable millions of consumers to potentially access the first generation of drugs. It also encourages these companies to keep innovating on new, more differentiating drugs that they will be able to sell at higher prices.
• New formats: oral pills are arriving sonner than expected. Phase 3 trial results have been recently published for the first pills and they are quite promising. Switching to pills will be a game changer for many users that are not confortable using weekly injectables.
• 2 billion more consumers: in key developing markets including India, China, and Brazil, semaglutide patents will expire in 2026. Clinical trials for generics are already underway, with a large part of them already focused on pills rather than injectable. In these countries, with a fast-rising rate of obesity (more than 10% of Chinese are already obese), a sudden price drop could open up the market. Indeed, the price could drop as low as $30/month, making it affordable to tens of millions of new users.

Alongside this list, there will be the entrance of new high-end drugs with more potent effects (up to 30% of weight loss compared to about 20% for current ones), and monthly injectables.

2- What does it mean for the future of food?

If GLP-1 become massively adopted due to this increased competition on both corners of the market, from low-cost generics to high-end, more potent drugs, the consequences could be quite dramatic for the food industry as a whole.

One obvious impact of consumers using GLP-1 is that they eat and spend less:

• grocery spending declines of about 6% for the general population and of 9% for the high-end consumers, which are the ones that brands tend to focus on.
• sales of snacks and similar products are even more affected with a 11% decline.
• some categories, notably protein-rich and/or gut-friendly products are doing quite well with increases of 5 to 10% depending on the sources.

While most food companies do not explicitly mention GLP-1’s impact on their sales, snack-focused leaders are currently facing strong headwinds, with many announcing layoffs and restructuring.

3 – Solutions through innovation?

A massive adoption of GLP-1 drugs in leading markets and growth areas (notably Asian markets) could be a significant blow to many food companies. Many are trying to address this by expanding their range of protein-rich products and creating GLP-1 companion products, but it probably won’t be enough.

To answer this paradigm shift, solutions include:

• Portfolio modification, notably through acquisitions of health-focused brands (such as Pepsico’s acquisitions of Siete Foods and Poppi earlier this year)
• GLP-1 companions: development of products aimed at reducing the after effects of the drug through muscle preservation, gut-health… and also at providing a natural booster effect to the drug.
• Healthy ageing focus: a broader focus on metabolic health rather than just “weight loss” through a combination of “better-for-you” ingredients and eventually of molecules with a positive effect on health.
• Biomimetics: food-grade molecules created to replicate the effect of GLP-1 drugs. They are only a handful of known companies active on that space, but the excitement around them is a testimony of the appetite of agrifood companies for solutions to the rising challenge.

This is a complex moment to navigate for food companies. On one hand, you have this rising wave of consumers focused on their health (or at least their weight, as their food consumption often doesn’t become ideal as soon as they take GLP-1 drugs). And in the meantime, there is also a growing segment of consumers seeking more indulgent foods (many of whom prefer insurgent, newly established brands for their processed snacks rather than legacy ones).

The question for leading companies is then: where do they want to play and can they afford to be in both markets at the same time? For now, it seems that by not choosing and by reducing their innovation efforts, many are risking being in neither.