GLP-1 (Glucagon-like peptide-1) is everything but just another wellness fad. It’s the biggest disruption the food industry has seen in decades — and it’s already hitting revenues, changing consumer habits, and rewriting product strategies. With this insight, we will look at what we know about the impact of GLP-1 on the food and beverage industry, and more importantly, at how innovation could provide solutions.
1 – How many users of GLP-1 drugs?
Interestingly, it’s very hard to have any kind of precise data on the number of people who are currently using GLP-1 drugs. In the US, the most advanced market, the best estimations are that 4% of adults were under GLP-1 prescriptions in 2024, half of them for weight-loss (the other half for diabetes). If we project the trend and include the number of persons buying the drugs over the counter and without any insurance, we should be currently above 6% of US adults using GLP-1 drugs.
Also, surveys have shown that about 12% of US adults have already used the drug. This means that a large share of users stop using GLP-1 drugs. There are then two questions to measure the potential impact of these drugs on the food and beverage industry: can the drug makers make users stick longer, and are the effects long-lasting or limited to the use of the medicine?
Long-lasting changes: While it is often said that stopping the drug leads to a return to the previous weight, this is far from a certainty. A recent study on Semaglutide (the component of Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic) demonstrated that if a noticeable share of former GLP-1 drug users regained weight, an even bigger share kept their lower weight and even experienced additional weight loss. This could mean that the drugs help people adopt new, healthier diet and activity behaviours.
Multiple factors will make more people engage and stick to using the drugs:
- Pills: as many users are repelled by the need to inject themselves regularly, the emergence of a pill alternative could boost sales and retention. Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 just completed its phase 3 (meaning it should soon be available) and showed similar efficiency as the injectable version.
- More efficient drugs: the first versions of the drug help people achieve a 5 to 15% bodyweight loss, new versions currently in trials are showing results of about 25!
- Thinking beyond weight-loss: there is not a week without a new study showing the positive effects of GLP-1 drugs, as diverse as helping protect against Alzheimer’s or helping with alcoholism. An increasing number of serious people and organisations are starting to ask if we shouldn’t all take GLP-1 drugs for their preventive effects.
2 – How does it impact the food industry?
The effects are quite immediate for the food and beverage industry as GLP-1 drug users eat less (20-30% daily calorie reduction) while observing a modification of how they experience foods (taste is affected). Initial data in the US show that the most affected categories for GLP-1 users are:
- Processed Foods and Snacks: declines of about 5-10% in snacks, sweets, and ultra-processed items.
- Fast Food: reduced spending on quick-service restaurants and casual dining.
- Sugary drinks and alcohol: soft drink sales drop by 7%, and half of users report drinking less alcohol.
- Healthier Choices: increased preference for protein-rich and fresh foods, with produce purchases up by 55%.
This already translates into sales as PepsiCo and Mondelez saw a decline of 2% and 4.1% of their revenue in North America in the first quarter of this year.
Also, this goes far beyond the US. GLP-1 drugs are now available in Europe and China, where the number of obese and overweight people is projected to reach 790 million people by 2030! For instance, a new report shows that the share of UK households with at least one GLP-1 user has jumped from 2.3 to 4.1% in a year. In terms of sales, this translates into a 5.5% dip in grocery spending.
3 – What’s next?
We can expect steady growth for the foreseeable future. Among the elements that could help new growth potential are new delivery formats (pills), fierce competition between drug makers and a broader insurance coverage (notably if public and private health systems see GLP-1 as a tool to prevent severe and costly conditions).
Now, the question is what food and beverage companies can and should do to overcome this challenge beyond cleaning labels and making products healthier (which should be a goal independently of our topic).
First, one of the most striking things about this topic is how few innovations there are, from leading companies to startups to academia. In many ways, the food and beverage industry is like a rabbit caught in the headlights, still waiting to confirm the nature of the danger before moving.
Today, it seems that the most relevant approach is a three-step strategy:
- Support GLP-1 users by:
- Rebranding or launching products to overcome aftereffects with enhanced protein content, collagen or prebiotics.
- Reformulate current products to make the taste GLP-1 users experience similar to people not using the drug (which modifies taste perception).
- Bet on “natural GLP-1” boosters or substitutes, to target on-drug and after-treatment users. While this is interesting, it remains a transitory, marketing step, as most of these compounds have limited proven effect.
- Work on more advanced boosters and alternatives with a proven benefit. There is a small but increasing number of players leveraging AI or biotechnologies, which are now venturing into that space, such as NotCo or Lembas.
What’s clear is that the landscape is changing fast. What’s less clear is who will adapt in time. Will your company see GLP-1 as a threat or turn it into an opportunity?
