Today, I’d like to share three interesting and contrarian graphs that challenge our conventional thinking about agriculture and food innovation.

Also, I am currently in Japan to meet some clients. If you’re there or know someone I should meet, please let me know!

1 – Plant-based sales rose in 2025

It is often assumed that plant-based sales are going down. With the new GFI data being published, we can verify whether this is true. It is the case, but in the US, they were again down by 4% in 2024. However, if you look at the data globally, it is quite the opposite.

Global retail plant-based sales were up by 4% for plant-based meat and seafood alternatives in 2024 and by 5% for dairy alternatives. This means that sales in Europe and the Asia Pacific performed quite well last year, which is again quite interesting and counterintuitive. Also, the above graph shows quite clearly that even if most of the discussion on innovation is around plant-based meat, sales are still largely dominated by milk alternatives.

2 – Grass-fed beef has benefits, but it is not that great for the environment

When talking about the future of livestock farming and climate change concerns, two words often appear in the discussion: regenerative agriculture and grass-fed. This recent study shows that grass-fed may not be the solution we think it can be.

Indeed, grass-fed beef emits more CO2 “equivalent” than industrial beef. The study also addresses the other benefits of extensive livestock farming compared to intensive farming, notably biodiversity. If these elements are the priority, then maybe they could be better served by re-wilding programs (using less land for extensive farming) than by transforming them into pasture.

3 – Americans are using BNPL for groceries

You thought BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) was for large purchases? It was certainly that in the beginning, but now it has become part of the everyday life of most Americans, even for groceries and dining out.

This chart, which compares past months’ data to last year’s, showcases how much BNPL is getting adopted for everyday food items. A quarter of American consumers have already sued it for groceries, an 11% jump in a year, while use for dining out has more than doubled. This is, first and foremost, a testimony of how food inflation has impacted the American consumer. It shows how sensitive consumers are to food prices, something that innovators should always keep in mind.