đź’Ł (Food)Tech crash?

Published on November 10, 2022

Recently, news flow has been decidedly negative for tech, especially FoodTech. Indeed, in the last month, startups have been severely hit:

Some startups have seen their valuation slashed (even if very few talked about it publicly). The most impressive example is Instacart which had to cut its valuation a third time to $13B. It was valued at $39B at the start of the year. That’s $26B that just vanished. These billions are not entirely virtual; they are the basis on which the company raises money, and on which employees receive compensation in equity (think about people working there, many of whom certainly were betting that their equity had the potential to double or triple in value… only to see it being severely slimmed down).

Beyond this example, the high number of downturns (when a startup raises money at a lower valuation than its previous rounds) reveals how complicated it has become to raise money, notably for cash-burning companies. That’s a complete change in less than a year, and again a testimonial of how (ridiculously) high valuations were in some categories of the ecosystem. We do not think the purge is over yet (far from it, actually). Some categories, such as alternative proteins, are still raising deals disconnected from reality.

When things are bad, but not yet too bad, startups are laying off a part of their workforce. Here, the “golden” rule is to do it at one time, cleanly, if I may say that. Some examples are Infarm (vertical farming), NextBite (Virtual restaurants), Reef (Cloud Kitchens), Starship (delivery robots, see above for the video), Beyond Meat & Impossible Foods (plant-based meat analogues)…

Some don’t manage it well and repeat themselves. That’s the case of GoPuff (a US-based quick-commerce startup) which announces layoffs after layoffs (by Zoom, not a great way to do things if you want to avoid bad press).

Obviously, some had to go for more extreme measures and had either to sell for a low price or to shut down their activities. In recent weeks:

  • Gorillas is soon to be acquired by Getir at a much lower price ($100M +12% of the combined companies) than its previous valuation of $2.1B.
  • Simple Feast, a Danish startup delivering boxes of cooked meals, shut down in September (it had raised more than $100M over the last four years).
  • Multiple robotic restaurant startups, such as Pazzi, shut down.

Beyond startups, publicly traded companies are also reducing their investment in the future of food or planning for a less disruptive one:

However, let’s not get confused by all this noise and the comments around it. Let’s face it, many entrepreneurs, investors and experts were slightly too cocky, and now there is a bit of a guilty celebration to see them struggling and even being humble.

Beyond this necessary moment of reckoning, many startups are still raising money, investors setting up new funds, entrepreneurs launching new ventures and partnerships with large corporations are being established. Investments are still significantly up from 2 years ago, and the potential for disruption along the food value chain is bigger than ever.

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Use case: project for a global F&B company looking to map its AgTech innovation ecosystem and the best startups to partner with

What we did:

  • Mapping of the AgTech ecosystem: startups, research regulators, and other leading companies.
  • Discussion to select areas to focus on.
  • Analysis of the information to reveal the trends and a model to analyse eventual partners.
  • A workshop to validate the opportunities based on our recommendations.
  • Scouting of relevant partners followed by introductions.

Results:

  • Mapping the different categories of innovations in AgTech that should be considered now to create long-term benefits for the business.
  • Identification of key partners (an incubator and a couple of startups).

Use case: project for a CPG company on the healthy ageing ecosystem

What we did:

  • Education of the board through a couple of workshops to define the perimeter
  • Identification of key opportunities and threats created by long-term evolutions (technologies, business models, behavioural changes).
  • Deep dives on each of the priority categories.
  • Co-construction of a vision on how the company should address these challenges.
  • Identification of partners (startups, incubators, funds) to move forward.

Results:

  • Creating a consensus on which categories to prioritise and how to address them.
  • Implementation of an open innovation strategy through the development of partnerships.

Use case: project for a global CPG company to develop a strategy on the healthy ageing ecosystem

What we do (ongoing mission on a subscription model):

  • Kick-off where we present an overview of the AgriFoodTech ecosystem to select with the client the categories to cover and for each, the level of information required.
  • Monthly newsletter: each month we send a newsletter with the articles that we have gathered ranked by relevance, their summaries, and a layer of analysis.
  • Database: we set up a personalised database that will be filled month after month with the information gathered on the companies identified for the watch.
  • Workshops: twice a year with the client’s innovation team and other “innovation curious” team members, we present an overview of the evolutions, key trends and a dashboard of the topics followed by the watch.

Results:

  • A clear, regular and evolutive tool to follow what is happening in terms of innovation on key topics.
  • A forum (through the workshops) to discuss innovation trends and new opportunities.

Use case: opportunity screening for an ingredient company

What we did:

  • Kick-off to define the perimeter of the ecosystem studied.
  • Mapping of the different trends shaping the innovation ecosystem of the client.
  • Analysis of the trends on DigitalFoodLab’s trend curve and other relevant frameworks.
  • Workshop to discuss DigitalFoodLab’s recommendations on key trends to prioritise

Results:

  • Shared view of the innovation ecosystem for the client with a view of the trends to prioritize.
  • Clear document (personalised trend curve) that can be easily shared internaly to explain the company’s innovation choices and which can be then updated each year.

Use case: scouting for an agriculture coop

What we did:

  • Kick-off to define the perimeter of the client, the goals of the scouting (partnerships) and the criteria on which startups should be evaluated.
  • Set-up scouting: we selected the first batch of 20+ key startups following the criteria of the client.
  • On-going scouting: then we set up a quarterly scouting of about ten startups.
  • For each scouted startup, we created an ID card with key information such as the business and technological maturity, funding, and corporate partnerships. We also added an explanation of why we selected this startup.

Results:

  • An ongoing and evolutive scouting are matching the client's criteria and its capabilities in terms of deal flow.

Use case: working on an acquisition process for a CPG company

What we did:

  • Kick-off to define what the client is seeking, notably in terms of maturity.
  • Workshop with the client based on a mapping of the different innovation ecosystems adjacent to its activities to select some priorities and discuss inspiring examples of startup acquisition stories.
  • Identification of 20+ targets.
  • Workshop to select the most relevant to engage with.
  • DigitalFoodLab worked as a sparing partner during the acquisition process, notably to help design how the acquired startup could be integrated into the overall company’s strategy.

Results:

  • Different results from traditional M&A processes with a focus on the client’s innovation strategy.
  • Identification of a good match for an acquisition.

Use case: market due diligence on sugar alternatives

What we did:

  • Kick-off with the client to discuss its interest on this category, its expectations and existing level of information (notably on the target company).
  • Mapping of the ecosystem to analyse the different existing alternatives and technologies to compare them.
  • Interview (calls) with relevant startups made by our internal biotechnology expert.
  • Recommendation on whether to invest or not.

Results:

  • Clear view of the ecosystem and of the reasons to believe (or not) in each sub-category.
  • Enforceable recommendations based on facts and expertise.